Balancing Sovereignty and Regional Stability: Indonesia’s Strategic Posture in the 2026 Iran's Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Abstract

The global geopolitical architecture experienced a profound and irreversible rupture following the coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel on the Islamic Republic of Iran in February 2026. This unprecedented escalation precipitated an acute international crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, transforming a critical maritime chokepoint into an asymmetric battlespace. As global energy markets collapsed under the weight of severe supply chain disruptions and skyrocketing insurance premiums, middle powers across the Global South were compelled to rapidly recalibrate their foreign policy postures. This comprehensive research provides an exhaustive examination of Indonesia’s multifaceted strategic response to the crisis under the administration of President Subianto. Utilizing a rigorous systematic literature review and meta analytical methodology, this study synthesizes recent empirical data to evaluate Indonesia's diplomatic, economic, and maritime security strategies. The analysis is theoretically anchored in a tripartite framework encompassing neoclassical realism, active alignment diplomacy, and dynamic capabilities in energy resilience. The findings indicate that Indonesia is navigating unprecedented systemic pressures through a controversial strategy defined as one logic across two arenas. Diplomatically, Jakarta has engaged in complex moral signaling by joining the United States initiated Board of Peace, securing fragile domestic Islamic legitimacy while fulfilling its global middle power ambitions. Economically, the nation has succumbed to bilateral transactional coercion via the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade, essentially exchanging long term environmental sustainability goals for immediate tariff relief. Ultimately, this posture demonstrates a precarious balancing act between sovereign autonomy and economic survival.